We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. When they come back to Canada, he expects global investors will target large cap stocks such as Royal Bank of Canada and Suncor Inc. Is a recession coming in ? Over the past year, there have been mounting concerns about the global economy. The biggest risk, one Marion said is being underestimated, is the potential for inflation to make a comeback in and force central banks to revise monetary policy. With many Canadian companies still looking cheap when compared to their American counterparts, and with many market watchers predicting a rotation toward value-oriented stocks, Canadian markets appear to be well-positioned to draw even more attention in the year ahead. Bringing Together Users of Capital with Sources of Capital: A Record Attendance Last Year RealCapital will focus on these key issues and trends by bringing together owners and investors with sources of public and private equity and debt financing in the Canadian real estate market.
Falling business investment a bad sign for productivity growth
So too are environmental and energy issues. Investment in plant and equipment by Canadian businesses has dropped 20 per cent over the past five years, the worst performance in more than five decades. And despite the emergence of some high-profile tech clusters, total Canadian investment in intellectual property products has also fallen outright. Tight labour markets ofr both the U. The negative impact on profitability in the manufacturing sector, however, will be felt more in Canada. Since the Great Recession more than three-quarters of the improvement in U. The situation in Canada is very different.
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The goal of this transformation is to enable improved and easier access to government services by business and individuals in ways that meet their expectations for a responsive, modern and secure digital government. In developing this plan, we also looked at what other jurisdictions are doing to organize internal capacity to drive innovation in digital services. We will consider various models as we explore new approaches to utilize internal capacity to meet our current and future needs. At its core, the plan is intended to guide federal organizations and the IT community on IT priority setting and decision-making. This is why it includes actions to strengthen the current enterprise governance, a key to our success going forward. The strategic actions outlined in this plan include both current commitments and activities, as well as new enterprise directions, some of which may require additional approvals or funding to be fully implemented.
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So too are environmental and energy inestment. Investment in plant and equipment by Canadian businesses has dropped 20 per cent over the past five years, the worst performance in more than five decades.
And despite the emergence of some high-profile tech clusters, total Canadian investment in intellectual property products has also fallen outright. Tight labour markets in both the U. The negative impact on profitability in the manufacturing sector, however, will be felt more in Canada. Since the Great Recession more than three-quarters of the improvement in U. The situation in Canada is very different. The recovery was more evenly distributed, as some increase in capital-intensive activity earlier in the decade was offset, more recently, by activity dominated by labour intensive industries, such as fabricated metal products, miscellaneous manufacturing, plastic and rubber.
As a result the ratio of production in capital-intensive industries to non-capital-intensive industries capita, Canada is below the level it was at before the recession, while in the U. The increased reliance of U. The opposite, of course, is the case for Canada. The current acceleration in wage inflation will probably work to squeeze manufacturing profit margins relative to the US—another reason why we believe a weaker Canadian dollar is needed.
Erik Hertzbergfinancial journalist, Bloomberg, ErikHertzberg. Foreign direct investment is flowing into Canada at levels not seen since oil prices collapsed, a welcome development following years of weakness in the energy sector. Broader business investment invesgment sluggish however, down nearly a fifth since Until global uncertainty and trade tensions abate, Canadian firms are unlikely to make major capital expenditures, but at least foreign interest in the country is recovering.
This chart shows that real business investment per worker in mid was noticeably below the levels recorded in early across most categories of investment, including machinery and equipment and intellectual property products. Twitter: BenRabidoux. Inbestment makers continue to keep a watchful eye on household debt levels, and rightfully so.
The share of disposable income required to service debt levels is at year highs while interest payments are vor 4x the rate of disposable invesmtent growth. But while all eyes have been on household balance sheets, Canadian corporations have quietly been undertaking their own borrowing binge. Non-financial sector corporate debt now sits at 71 per cent of GDP. That level stands 18 points above long-term averages and makes the U. S level of 48 per cent look pedestrian by comparison.
In fact, over the past five years, the rate of growth in this ratio in Canada has more than tripled the G20 average. Canada has a large overhang of unsold goods in key parts of the economy that is near levels last seen in the recession. Excess inventories will have to be sold down since they are costly to finance and store.
That is likely to mean softening production and hiring into and possibly weaker inflation. What looked like a jobs miracle with inflation on the two per cent target in could quickly fade along with wage growth in part due to the inventory problem. Combining easier monetary policy through our forecast for rate cuts with fiscal policy stimulus would offer downside protection to this and other risks.
Will Ottawa act in time? There are over 50, Aboriginal businesses in Canada operating in every sector, size and region. Under one per cent 0. A realistic and more than achievable five per cent Aboriginal procurement spending target was a Liberal party platform promise in the recent election. An overlap analysis conducted by CCAB found that Aboriginal businesses have the capacity to supply 24 per cent of the goods and services purchased by the federal government annually.
Full Indigenous participation in government supply chains, and all supply chains, strengthens the Indigenous economy and a strong Indigenous economy means a stronger Canadian economy. Canadian economic growth has been pulled down by an outright decline in business investment the past few years and this year is no different.
Our growth drivers are cappital 0. This is particularly concerning since our already flagging productivity levels have been diverging from other countries, such as the United States, in recent years because businesses have not been provided with the incentives and certainty to invest in the technologies and skills that help national economies compete.
Some of this uncertainty is out of our control, such as geopolitical instability and global trade tensions. But many of our challenges are of our own making, such as our broken regulatory system, inter-provincial trade barriers, and a cumbersome and antiquated tax.
All these factors increase the cost and ease of doing business in this country. This is why the business community has been so focused on competitiveness of late — we urgently need to improve the Canadian investment environment.
If we can fix this, then our economy would be operating near its growth potential. Only a few provinces are making any kind of notable invextment. Challenges abound in many provinces, that have resulted in manufacturing shutdowns or layoffs, resulting in lower manufacturing capacity.
Recently, manufacturing new orders have failed fapital get any traction, putting downside risks to manufacturing activity heading into After stalling inindustrial production is expected to advance around one per cent inwhich is far below the and gains. After record highs inlumber prices in have returned to levels consistent with long run averages. Ca;ital, B. These conditions have contributed to reduced lumber production and invesgment permanent mill closures this summer in B.
With global economic conditions potentially worsening, I am watching to see if lumber production continues to drop to the levels experienced in Business investment in Canada has been in a slump since the collapse in oil prices.
Investment had been on track to return to its long-term trend following the financial crisis before suffering a sharp drop in invesmtent To encourage investment, especially after U.
Uncertainty has been weighing on business investment this year and we expect it to continue to do so in the coming year. Indeed, a BDC survey of 1, entrepreneurs found that only a small portion are planning to increase their investment spending in compared 202 Business investment is critically important for the economy.
It contributes to higher labour productivity, operational efficiency and growth. That label describes a country that enjoys the income from selling non-renewable resources but is hurt by the side effects of that activity, such as elevated currency valuation, inflated costs and atrophy of other important industries, such as manufacturing. Today it looks like this view was too complacent.
Canada needs to restore balance. Oil producing provinces have investent a difficult five years. Low oil prices cut into revenue, investment, employment, wages, fr overall economic capital investment in canada for 2020. Government budgets are increasingly strained, unemployment is stubbornly high, social assistance enrolment is at record highs, and the end is not yet in sight. As this graph illustrates, my index of monthly economic activity in Alberta has been negative for most of — signalling a possibly contracting Alberta economy.
A worsening economy in Alberta affects employment and growth throughout Canada, but the ripples go far beyond the dollars and cents. Rising frustration and disappointment are increasingly directed at perceived failures of the federal government and Alberta politicians are happy to oblige. For these reasons, and more, this indicator will be one to watch in Canada has a serious growth problem that few realize thanks to a sense of complacency being fostered by the ongoing residential real estate boom in key regions of the country.
As a result, the situation in Alberta and Saskatchewan has been allowed to worsen thinking it is an isolated unvestment when in fact it is impacting the entire country. Fast forward and here we are with GDP per Capita actually 3 per cent lower than levels while our neighbours to the south have experienced a 35 per cent increase over the same period.
Unfortunately, it may take a real estate contraction for the rest of the country to finally invextment up and start addressing our overall economic situation. However, housing speculation is still rampant further creating a false sense of security while doing absolutely nothing to the economic benefit of all Canadians. Therefore, this is our chart of One that we hope catches the attention of those driving fiscal and monetary policy. The OECD leading indicator has declined now for 21 consecutive months to a ten-year low.
If you are bullish on risk-assets, have a different reason than a constructive outlook for the economy — liquidity, momentum, or sentiment. The fundamental macro outlook is clouded in to say the. Gross domestic product GDP per capita is easy to figure out, but its importance is less obvious. GDP per capita, is the value of those goods and services, divided by the population. For the most part, it only tells us if GDP is getting higher, and if the government has control. GDP per capita on the other hand, gives us an idea of how the population is doing.
If it goes higher, living standards are likely to improve. Or if you and your neighbour are seeing a deteriorating standard of living? Real GDP grew 1. That means the population is growing faster than the output of the economy. To contrast, the month growth was 2. This past summer markets experienced a growth scare. Bonds throughout the world went bid in a mad scramble as investors desperately tried to buy fixed-income to lock in the quickly diminishing yields.
Worries that economic activity would collapse sent yields plummeting. In a regular economic environment, short-term fixed-income instrument yield less than longer ones. However, when markets are concerned that a recession is right around the corner, investors rush into longer-dated bonds pushing those yields below the short-term rates. This inversion of the yield curve has been one of the best economic signals for forecasting future economic activity.
Canada is the only country in the developed world with an inverted yield curve. The difference between our yield curve and the rest of the world is almost as wide as it has ever been during the past couple of decades. Once this index crosses the yellow threshold, recession odds become more of a coin toss.
The current pattern points to lower near-term growth in the one per cent to two per cent range, but not an outright contraction. Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have created a positive impulse into housing and consumer spending.
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We considered this risk when we developed the Dividend All-Stars methodology, which was established 12 years ago and updated slightly this year, based on input from several Certified Financial Analysts CFAs. Skip to main content. We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Often criticized for its lack of growth, the index crossed the 17, barrier and hit multiple all-time highs despite lacklustre results from financial, materials and energy stocks. Although his ultimate target is the same as that of some of his colleagues, Lapointe sees much of that growth occurring before the end ofwhere he projects the index will hit 17, No, the Canadian economy is on a solid foundation. Is the flight to quality still relevant? High yields can be like a drug for income investors; they are hard to resist. While high yields can be a warning sign, they can also suggest a company is undervalued. The biggest risk, one Marion said is being underestimated, is the potential for inflation to make a comeback in and force central banks to revise monetary policy. Royal Bank, the largest company in Canada by market cap, was capital investment in canada for 2020 only one of the Big Banks not to earn either an A or B rating. Notwithstanding the aforementioned issues, does office, retail, industrial and multi-unit residential real estate investment remain fairly attractive? Ten stocks are worthy of A-grades this year, including four-returning All-Stars from the edition capital investment in canada for 2020 this report.
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